09/25/2024 --axios
Donald Trump's fixation with tariffs has become an obsession — a policy panacea he claims will fuel a manufacturing boom, lower grocery prices, cut the deficit, stop wars, pay for tax breaks and even solve the child care crisis."Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented," the former president declared at a town hall in Michigan last week.Why it matters: The impact of Trump's plan to impose massive tariffs — with or without the support of Congress — has become the single biggest economic question of the 2024 election.Vice President Harris sees the issue as fertile ground to close Trump's polling edge on the economy and hammer him over proposals that mainstream economists say would reignite inflation.Despite those warnings — and with nervous opposition from many fellow Republicans — Trump has doubled down on his populist vision for transforming the global economy.Driving the news: In a speech Tuesday in the port city of Savannah, Ga., Trump vowed to "relocate entire industries" to the U.S. by slashing taxes and regulations — and punishing companies that don't manufacture at home."You will see a mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from Germany to right here in Georgia," Trump said.He pledged to impose a 100% tariff on "every single car coming across the Mexican border," a day after threatening John Deere with 200% tariffs if the agricultural giant moves production to Mexico. Trump famously called himself a "Tariff Man" during his first term in office. Screenshot via XWhat they're saying: Trump's well-documented devotion to tariffs has only grown deeper on the 2024 campaign trail, where he has cast the policy tool as an antidote to America's ailments.War: "You go to war with another country that's friendly to us, or even not friendly to us, you're not going to do business in the United States and we're going to charge you 100% tariffs."De-dollarization: "You leave the dollar, you're not doing business with the United States because we're going to put 100% tariff on your goods."Child care: "We're going to be taking in trillions of dollars, and as much as child care is talked about as being expensive, it's — relatively speaking — not very expensive, compared to the kind of numbers we'll be taking in."Reality check: Trump's math doesn't add up, as Axios' Neil Irwin notes.For one, Trump has falsely claimed for years that foreign countries pay tariffs. In reality, they're a tax on imported goods — meaning the money comes from a U.S. buyer who typically passes on those additional costs.Trump also rarely mentions the inevitable retaliatory tariffs against American exporters, which could damage major U.S. industries such as agriculture, energy and aerospace.Trump's unprecedented proposals for blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% — and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods — would likely ignite a global trade war of epic proportions.The big picture: The former president's plans represent a sharp departure from Republican tradition, putting him at odds with GOP leaders in Congress who favor free trade."I'm not a fan of tariffs. They raise prices for American consumers," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday in remarks subsequently blasted out by Harris' campaign.Former Vice President Mike Pence also spoke out against his ex-boss on Monday, arguing in the Wall Street Journal that "protectionist tariffs ... make products more expensive."Americans writ large, however, may be more receptive to Trump's plans: 56% of registered voters said in a Reuters/Ipsos poll this month that they support a 10% blanket tariff and 60% tariff on Chinese goods.Between the lines: As Trump pointed out in his debate with Harris, President Biden has kept some of his predecessor's China tariffs in place — though it's been a far more targeted approach than what Trump is proposing."For years they knocked the word. The word 'tariff,' when properly used, is a beautiful word," Trump said in his free-wheeling Georgia speech."One of the most beautiful words I've ever heard. It's music to my ears. A lot of bad people didn't like that word, but now they're finding out I was right."
